The Language Teacher
July 2001
The Role and Influence of Japan's University Entrance Exams: A Reassessment
Bern Mulvey
Fukui National University
This article looks at recent changes to Japan's university admissions process, especially at how demographic trends have combined with Monbukagakusho-instituted1 reforms to impact the role and influence of the infamous entrance examinations. The term infamous is used here advisedly: few subjects in EFL have ignited such controversy over such an extended number of years. This paper focuses on three items at issue: the supposed difficulty of gaining university admission, the primacy of the exam's role in making admissions decisions, and the causal exam-pedagogy relationship that is the ostensible result of this so-called monopoly (Brown & Yamashita, 1995b, p. 98; Gates, 1995, p. 102).
As the discussion below will make clear, received arguments with regards to these three issues appear to be based on an incomplete understanding of exam role and content; worse, they fail to take into account the effects of Monbukagakusho-inspired reforms (sparked in turn by economic and demographic concerns) which have, over the last fifteen years, completely revamped the admissions process. Hopefully, the research and statistical evidence provided below will inspire a more informed critical review of both the substance of the reforms and the possible impact of the economic and demographic forces which have prompted them.
Background
The university entrance examinations (i.e., the national "Center" exam and the various independently generated and separately administered individual college or faculty exams) have been heavily criticized for both perpetuating archaic pedagogical practices and impeding efforts at curriculum reform (see for example Brown, 1993; Brown and Yamashita 1995a & b; Cutts, 1997; Frost, 1991; Hards, 1998; Leonard, 1998; Sturman, 1989; Tsukada, 1991; and Vanderford, 1997). A key term in this criticism is washback effect, used to refer to the supposedly cause-and-effect nature of the entrance examinations influence on senior high school teaching methodology and textbook content. The difficulty of gaining university admission, not to mention the critical (as widely believed) importance of the exams in gaining said admission, have ostensibly created a situation where exam content dictates to a great extent how and what students will be taught up until they graduate from high school (see Brown & Yamashita, 1995b, pp. 97-8; Leonard, 1998, p. 26; Sturman, 1989, p. 76; Vanderford, 1997, p.23); hence, without equivalent changes to the exams themselves, achieving systematic curriculum reform is held to be impossible.
It would be difficult to exaggerate the nature and scope of the ongoing -- and almost completely uncritical -- acceptance of the above arguments. This November, The Language Teacher will publish a special issue devoted to this problem, marking the third time since 1993 that a JALT publication has been so dedicated. Numerous non-JALT publications (most recently, The Daily Yomiuri -- see "Academics," 2001) have done so as well. Indeed, despite the fact that the basic presupposition -- i.e., that exam contents accurately mirror high school curriculum contents -- upon which they are based has (until recently) never been systematically examined, these received arguments have come to suffuse all discussion about English educational reform in this country, with entrance exam influence a popular scapegoat for a host of perceived curriculum-related flaws.
Current Research and Statistics
In asserting these positions, the above researchers appear to have focused exclusively on the experiences of that subset of students in academic (as opposed to industrial, agricultural, or business) high schools who are both attending college prep classes and struggling to enter Japan's most exclusive universities (to his credit, Cutts, 1997, acknowledges this -- see pp. 158-160). It is this student population who worry about hensachi (standard deviation) tests and face examination hell (Frost, 1991), a reference to the months and years they must spend "working industriously in school, at home, and in jukus" in order to pass the various exams and get into the elite university of their choice (Brown & Yamashita, 19995b, p.86).
As studies in this area almost invariably fail to include verifiable citations, the exact size of this student population is difficult to ascertain. Unsubstantiated claims of up to 80% attendance at jukus, for instance, exist (see Smith, 1998, p. 93); however, one of the few studies actually to include a survey of student families found that the percentage of students regularly attending jukus was only 33% (Nihon Kodomo o Mamoru Kai, 1984, p. 228). Support for this lower figure can be found in the fact that the percentage of students who do take the entrance examinations and apply to enter university only topped the 50% mark in the last decade (Monbukagakusho, 1999a, 2000a). As the majority of even this latter group of students do not apply to elite universities (Akira, 1998, pp. 949-1024), and as school expulsion for poor grades (literally impossible at the elementary/junior high level and almost unheard of at the high school level -- Mulvey, 2001) is not a prime concern, the financial burden of attending a juku would appear for many to be superfluous; at the very least, one must question the applicability of terms such as exam hell and language testing hysteria to the experiences of the majority of the student population.
Indeed, analysis of current admission trends suggests that, especially for low- and mid-tier universities, successful admission is no longer a difficult prospect requiring hysterical (Brown, 1993) expenditures of time and family resources. 25 years ago, the large number of applicants vis-a-vis the limited number of spaces available gave Japan's universities a well-earned reputation for exclusivity; now, nearly 80% of test-takers pass the examinations and successfully enter university (Monbukagakusho, 1998a, 1999b, 1999c), with the overall matriculation rate into post secondary schools currently higher in Japan than in the supposedly lax United States.
Matriculation Rates:
| Country | Male | Female | Combined Average |
| Japan | 48.2 | 49.6 | 48.9 |
| United States | 42.4 | 51.7 | 46.9 |
While it is true that admission rates remain extremely low (10-15%) for Japan's fifteen most exclusive universities (Akira, 1998, pp. 949-1024), the same can be said for the top western schools as well (e.g., Princeton 10.4%, Harvard 10.7%). In fact, many colleges and universities in Japan now admit more than 50% of applicants, with a large number of 2-year colleges -- not to mention some 4-year regional universities -- accepting close to 100% of those applying (Akira, 1998, pp. 949-1024; Mulvey & Jannuzi, 2000).3
Furthermore, though almost unmentioned in articles written in English, there has been a well-documented decrease in average test scores over the last 10 years. Studies sponsored by Asahi Shinbun ("Daigaku," 2001), the Chuuo Kyouiku Shingikai ("Misu-machi," 1999), and Monbukagakusho (2000c), for example, all indicate a sharp decline in median academic ability vis-a-vis test-related skill areas among even successful university entrants, with many of the freshman evaluated lacking minimal skills in not only English, but also math, the sciences, and the Japanese language. Indeed, a study conducted by the Daigaku Shingikai (2000, pp. 1-4) found that a number of universities have begun accepting students even with extremely low examination results, a trend which threatens to make success on, and academic preparation for, the exams even less important in the near future (see also "Misu-machi," 1999; "Cram," 1998; "Creative," 2000).
To cite just one specific example of this phenomenon, out of the 365 students who took the entrance examination to enter one section of a prominent university in Fukui Prefecture last year, only two scored over 45% on the English section -- i.e., far too small a number of successful applicants to ensure the economic viability of such a large university. The university's response? All final scores for the English section were multiplied by 1.65, thereby increasing the pool of successful applicants dramatically. How widespread a practice this is, is unknown; however, as the economic and demographic forces which have created this situation are expected to worsen over the next decade (Daigaku Shingikai, 2000, pp. 1-4; Monbukagakusho, 1998a, p. 1), it seems safe to argue that a number of other universities are either acting similarly or considering it. Beyond the obvious economic advantage, this kind of mathematical acrobatics has an additional pragmatic advantage as well: all universities must report the average test scores of accepted applicants (to newspapers, guidebooks like that put out by Gakken, etc.); a high reported average suggests high selectivity, thereby adding to the prestige of the university.
Received arguments with regards to exam washback effect on English language high school teaching methodology and textbook content appear similarly to be counter-indicated by recent scholarship. Brown (1995), Guest (2000), Law (1994), Kimura & Visgatis (1996), and Pai (1996) have demonstrated clearly that entrance examinations no longer emphasize translation or grammar-focused "discrete-item" exercises; on the contrary, they now uniformly feature advanced, adult level reading passages (Brown, p. 96-7; Guest, pp. 25-7; Law p. 96; Kimura & Visgatis, pp. 86-92; Pai, p. 153), along with contextualized, task-based analysis problems requiring examinees to have the ability to summarize and/or explain difficult areas in the reading passages (see Brown, pp. 94-95; Guest, pp. 25-7; Law, p. 96; Kimura & Visgatis, pp. 86-92; Pai, p. 153).
However, this new emphasis has not produced the corresponding curriculum changes that one would expect in the presence of a washback effect. Indeed, studies have demonstrated that high school textbook contents do not reflect the present reading/analytical orientation of the entrance examinations (Kimura & Visgatis, 1996; Mulvey 1998, 1999; Pai, 1996); further, it has been shown exhaustively that, for the overwhelming majority of Japanese students, high school English classes do not offer instruction in reading skills sufficient to prepare them for the reading/analytical sections which currently make up the main part of the examinations (see Gorsuch, 1998; Guest, 2000; Jannuzi, 1994; Kitao, K. & Kitao, S. K. 1995; Kitao, K., Yoshida, S., & Yoshida, H., 1986; Kitao, S. K., Kitao, K., Nozawa, K., & Yamamoto, M., 1985; Kitao and Yoshida, 1985; Law, 1994, 1995; Mulvey, 1998, 1999; Nishijima, 1995; Saeki, 1992; Yoshida, H., 1985; Yoshida, S., 1985; and Yoshida & Kitao, 1986). When coupled with the fact that the addition of a writing skills section to many individual university examinations (Kawasaki, 2000; Monbukagakusho, 2000b) has similarly failed to translate into a corresponding increase in writing skills instruction even at local academic high schools (Kawasaki, 2000; Mulvey, 1997; Okada, 1995; Yamada, 1993), it would appear that the nature and extent of exam washback effect has been exaggerated; at the very least, it seems possible to argue that strong motivational forces and situational requirements outside of mere "test preparation" are in operation, ones that have not been fully studied but which may be significant nonetheless.
Recent Reforms and the Demographic and Economic Forces that Inspired Them
As delineated above, current government statistics and recent research published in Japanese-language publications seem to indicate that traditional conceptions regarding university admission exclusivity, the primary role of exam scores in making admissions decisions, and the causal exam-pedagogy relationship that this so-called monopoly supposedly engender may no longer accurately represent the actual situation. This section discusses the demographic, political, and economic forces that appear to have played a role in the creation of this apparent discrepancy.
Chief among these forces is the ongoing and profound impact the declining birthrate has had on Japan's admissions process. In 1990, the number of students entering high schools in Japan officially peaked at 1, 871,333 students (Monbukagakusho, 1999e). By 1999, this number had dropped to 1,436,423 -- i.e., a drop of almost 25% in just nine years. Combined with the overcapacity created by the ill-advised college building frenzy of the late-80's bubble years (when the number of 2- and 4-year universities increased by 31% -- see, Mulvey & Jannuzi, 2000), this sudden decline has placed severe economic strains on Japan's mid- and low-tier universities.
The fact is, Japan's traditional university feeder programs are rapidly reaching the point where they can no longer graduate a number of students sufficient to maintain the economic vitality of the majority of Japan's universities. In 1999, for example, 756,149 high school students applied for entrance into university, with 602,078 accepted (Monbukagakusho, 1999b, 1999c).4 This works out to a success rate of 80% -- an all-time high, and one which is expected to climb even higher over the next few years. Japanese sources (Daigaku Shingikai, 2000, p. 2; Keizai Doyukai, 1999, p. 216; Monbukagakusho, 1998a, p.1), for instance, estimate that the "applicant-to-university space" ratio (shigansha ni taisuru shuuyouryoku) will reach exactly 1:1 by the year 2009 sooner if a predicted sharp increase in the percentage of 18-year olds who do take the exams and apply to university does not materialize.
As the number of applicants comes to equal the number of places available, it stands to reason that post-secondary programs will be forced into a continued relaxation of admissions standards in order to maintain enrollment levels sufficient to ensure their economic viability. Indeed, the effects of this trend have already begun to manifest themselves. As described in the proceeding section, universities have already begun to admit students with non-passing scores on the entrance examinations. Furthermore, declining applicant numbers, along with the resultant lowering in academic expectations by universities, have combined to threaten the whole test preparation industry itself, forcing many jukus and yobikos to the brink of bankruptcy ("Cram," 1998, "Creative," 2000).
Another possible side-effect of this process may be the seeming weakening (if not elimination) of washback-type influence on high school methodology and textbook content alluded to above. As most did not conduct comparison studies, it is difficult to ascertain how accurate many washback effect proponents were in their initial claims. However, even assuming this influence, it should be clear how current trends toward looser admissions standards might be affecting its nature and extent. As even students with extremely poor exam results can now successfully gain admittance into many universities, the pressing need for high school educators to make curriculum adjustments with every change in exam content would seem to be removed. This in turn would make high school curriculums less open to exam influence, as many students would still pass regardless of any preparation deficiency in their high school English classes. In other words, perhaps the lack of exam influence described earlier is the result of the examinations evolving where high school curriculums have not?
Indeed, it cannot be questioned that the admissions process in general, and the role and contents of the exams in particular, have changed drastically over the last 15 years. Since the late 1980's, political pressure (spurred in part by economic pressure brought on by the demographic changes delineated above) has caused Monbukagakusho to institute a series of reforms to increase both the quality, and the accessibility, of the exams (Monbukagakusho, 1999d, 2000b). As noted earlier, entrance examinations no longer focus solely on translation or grammar exercises; on the contrary, reading skills are emphasized in almost all cases, with listening and writing skills sections now included on a large number of individual university exams as well. Moreover, several recent policy changes have allowed students even from non-traditional backgrounds (e.g., so-called returnees, students from non-academic high schools, students over 16 but without high school diplomas, etc.) to take the exams and attempt to enter university (Monbukagakusho, 2000d). Finally, there has been a marked increase (to approximately 85%) in the number of universities who accept a percentage of their students under the suisen nyuugaku or entrance by recommendation system (Akira, 1998, pp. 949-1024; Monbukagakusho, 2000b). As the name suggests, these fortunate students are evaluated separately from their test-taking peers, with admission decisions based mainly on recommendations from high school advisors/coaches, often (but not always) supplemented by test scores, a submitted essay, and or an interview with the applicant.
Furthermore, Monbukagakusho has worked hard to make public universities (the majority of private universities having instituted similar reforms voluntarily) less dependent on a single entrance examination result for admissions decisions (Monbukagakusho, 1999d, 2000b). The results have been striking. Currently, only 4% of public universities rely on a single examination score as the sole criteria for their admission decisions. The overwhelming majority includes Center exam scores, individual university examinations, essays, and or interviews in the decision-making process.
Percentage Breakdown of Public Universities Including Supplemental Criteria in Admissions Decisions:
| Year | Interview Essay | Physical | Education Exam |
| 1980 | 35.0 | 33.3 | 45 |
| 1999 | 93.6 | 94.2 | 44.9 |
Percentage of Public Universities Requiring Students to Take Individual University Exams (Plus Number of Exam Sections Required Where Applicable):
| Not Required | 1 Exam | 2 Exams | 3 Exams | 4 Exams |
| 36.2 | 15.1 | 25.0 | 19.2 | 4.5 |
Typically, applicants receive points in each category required by the university in question. The points are then totaled, and the final combined score is compared to those of other applicants in the same year. At Fukui National University, for instance, the Center exam, the individual university exam (usually three subject-sections), and the required essay are each assigned a value of up to 200 points, with the additional interview worth up to 100 points. Even at the same university, however, certain departments are less stringent than others; would-be engineering and science majors at Fukui University, for instance, have the English section scores waived, while some other departments make the interview/essay optional.
Conclusions and Final Comments
In suggesting the need for a reassessment of entrance exam role and influence, this author wishes to make clear that he is neither overlooking nor discounting the numerous problems documented in both the admissions process in general, and in the entrance examinations in particular. Questions remain about exam reliability and validity (Brown & Yamashita, 1995b), with the lack of emphasis on listening skills (Hards, 1998; Vanderford, 1997) another obvious flaw. There is also the undeniable reality that many exams test for a level of comprehension clearly far beyond the overwhelming majority of test takers, so much so that one must perforce doubt the value of their results. Finally, ethical questions can conceivably be raised with regards to several aspects of the exam process, especially the advisability of having a separate suisen nyuugaku system where a percentage of fortunate students can gain admission on the strength of recommendations alone.
The above flaws are both undeniably real and unarguably serious; unfortunately, the same cannot be said for many other commonly held assumptions regarding the admissions process. As delineated above, most scholarship in this area has attempted to present Japanese secondary level education -- especially student experiences in EFL education -- as monolithic in nature. Documented problems are almost invariably ascribed to negative exam influence, the result in turn of the supposed monopoly the examinations have in determining university admission. However, while the possibility of washback effect-type influence cannot be discounted entirely, it should be clear from the above discussion that received arguments of this kind may have exaggerated its nature and extent. Worse, the uncritical acceptance of these arguments has resulted in a narrowing of the debate, an oversimplification of the complex economic, political, and demographic obstacles facing educational reformers in this country.
Demographic changes will continue to put more and more economic pressure on universities to compete for a dwindling pool of applicants. What will these changes mean for English teachers? Possible consequences, as predicted by the Japanese government, include faculty layoffs, school closures, hiring freezes, and severe budget reductions (Jannuzi & Mulvey, 2000; Mori, 1999; Mulvey, 2000; "Shushou," 2000).
On the other hand, changes in admission standards will allow a new generation of students to attend university, ones whose needs, levels of ability, and areas of interest may differ dramatically from what long-term English language professionals in Japan are perhaps accustomed to seeing in the classroom. Far from being catastrophic, however, this latter development -- if sufficiently anticipated -- could become an opportunity for instituting needed reform. Hopefully, the research presented above will encourage a broader discussion of these issues, inviting a deeper examination of the motivational forces and situational requirements in action in Japanese society today.
Thanks go to Dr. Tachi Kiyotaka, Dr. Terao Takeo, and Prof. Joe Tomei for their kind assistance.
Bern Mulvey
is an associate professor at Fukui National University.<mulvey@edu00.f-edu.fukui-u.ac.jp>
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1.Effective this year, Monbusho has changed its name to Monbukagakusho.
2.Matriculation rates are based on Japanese criteria for details, see Abe (2000, p. 461).
3.Texts like the one cited here do not require schools to differentiate between applicants who complete the application and take a particular university's entrance exam and inquiring students who only begin the process (i.e., request an application but do not actually sit for the exam), nor is allowance made for individuals who send in applications to several schools. As it is in the best interest of schools (for prestige purposes) to over-report applicant numbers, it is therefore quite possible that the statistics quoted actually under-report the real success rate. Indeed, as the number of applicants reported by all listed universities, if totaled together, would be well in excess of the total number of graduating senior high school students (and almost 3 times the total number of those who actually attempted to enter college), it should be clear that a significant amount of overstating may be occurring. The 80% overall success rate for applicants -- taken from Monbukagakusho's own database -- further implies this.
4.These figures do not include the small number of nontraditional applicants -- returnees, etc. -- who also apply each year.
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